Based on Clarity's multi-model valuation engine, ARBOR REALTY TRUST INC (ABR) has an estimated fair value of $7.25 per share, compared to its current market price of $8.69. The stock is currently trading 16.6% above Clarity's fair value estimate, resulting in a verdict of OVERVALUED.

This valuation blends 3 independent models — including Comparable Companies, Residual Income, Discounted Cash Flow (DCF). The primary weight is given to the Comparable Companies model, with Bayesian triangulation used to reconcile the estimates into a single blended fair value. The 3 models show moderate agreement with a 28% spread between the highest and lowest estimates.

Monte Carlo simulation across 5,000 scenarios estimates a 24.8% probability that the stock is trading below its intrinsic value, with a median simulated value of $6.61.

Clarity's 1-year price target is $3.81, reflecting expected earnings growth and margin trajectory.

ARBOR REALTY TRUST INC is classified under the Specialty Lender / Mortgage REIT sector, and this valuation is based on 10-K · Filed 2026-02-27 filings sourced directly from SEC EDGAR. All models use trailing twelve month (TTM) financials where available, with sector-appropriate growth and discount rate assumptions.