CVE Valuation Report | Mar 22, 2026
ALK
◆◆◆◆
ALASKA AIR GROUP, INC.
10-K · Filed 2026-02-12
C
$30
$40
$50
$60
$70
$80
$90
$100
.
MKT
.
FV
.
1Y
.
.
Fair Value
$59.33
1Y Target
$84.46
MKT. PRICE
$36.91
Model Blend
MODERATE agreement · 38% spread
Comps$61.67 · 34%
DCF$94.23 · 27%
Residual Income$24.05 · 21%
ROIC Fade$32.72 · 15%
EV/Rev$96.05 · 3%
Trailing Rev Growth
21.3%
Model Implied Rev CAGR
2.2%
Market Cap
$4B
ClarVal Report
Mar 22, 2026
9:02 PM EDT
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ALK Valuation Summary

Based on Clarity's multi-model valuation engine, ALASKA AIR GROUP, INC. (ALK) has an estimated fair value of $59.33 per share, compared to its current market price of $36.91. The stock is currently trading 60.7% below Clarity's fair value estimate, resulting in a verdict of SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED.

This valuation blends 5 independent models — including Comparable Companies, Discounted Cash Flow (DCF), Residual Income, and 2 more. The primary weight is given to the Comparable Companies model, with Bayesian triangulation used to reconcile the estimates into a single blended fair value. The 5 models show moderate agreement with a 38% spread between the highest and lowest estimates.

Monte Carlo simulation across 5,000 scenarios estimates a 70.8% probability that the stock is trading below its intrinsic value, with a median simulated value of $50.23.

Clarity's 1-year price target is $84.46, reflecting expected earnings growth and margin trajectory.

ALASKA AIR GROUP, INC. is classified under the Airline sector, and this valuation is based on 10-K · Filed 2026-02-12 filings sourced directly from SEC EDGAR. All models use trailing twelve month financials where available, with sector-appropriate growth and discount rate assumptions.

Not financial advice. For educational and research purposes only.
Updated Mar 22, 2026, 9:02 PM EDT · Powered by Clarity Valuation Engine · Methodology

ALASKA AIR GROUP, INC. (ALK) Valuation Summary

Clarity's 6-model valuation engine estimates ALASKA AIR GROUP, INC. (ALK) at $59.33 per share, compared to the current market price of $36.91. This represents a 60.7% upside from the current price. The verdict is SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED.

This valuation was generated from ALASKA AIR GROUP, INC.'s 10-K · Filed 2026-02-12 filing, classified in the Airline sector with high confidence. Model agreement is MODERATE with a 38% spread across models.

Models used: DCF (scenario-weighted), Residual Income, Comparable Companies, EV/Revenue, ROIC Fade, and Dividend Discount Model. All data sourced from SEC EDGAR and validated against XBRL structured filings.