Based on Clarity's multi-model valuation engine, AppLovin Corp (APP) has an estimated fair value of $270.32 per share, compared to its current market price of $442.39. The stock is currently trading 38.9% above Clarity's fair value estimate, resulting in a verdict of SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED.

This valuation blends 4 independent models — including Discounted Cash Flow (DCF), Comparable Companies, EV/Revenue, and 1 more. The primary weight is given to the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model, with Bayesian triangulation used to reconcile the estimates into a single blended fair value. The 4 models show low agreement with a 42% spread between the highest and lowest estimates.

Monte Carlo simulation across 5,000 scenarios estimates a 12% probability that the stock is trading below its intrinsic value, with a median simulated value of $228.86.

Clarity's 1-year price target is $320.21, reflecting expected earnings growth and margin trajectory.

AppLovin Corp is classified under the SaaS / Tech sector, and this valuation is based on 10-K · Filed 2026-02-19 filings sourced directly from SEC EDGAR. All models use trailing twelve month financials where available, with sector-appropriate growth and discount rate assumptions.