Based on Clarity's multi-model valuation engine, BLACKSTONE MORTGAGE TRUST, INC. (BXMT) has an estimated fair value of $11.46 per share, compared to its current market price of $18.87. The stock is currently trading 39.3% above Clarity's fair value estimate, resulting in a verdict of SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED.

This valuation blends 3 independent models — including Comparable Companies, Residual Income, Discounted Cash Flow (DCF). The primary weight is given to the Comparable Companies model, with Bayesian triangulation used to reconcile the estimates into a single blended fair value. The 3 models show moderate agreement with a 40% spread between the highest and lowest estimates.

Monte Carlo simulation across 5,000 scenarios estimates a 10.7% probability that the stock is trading below its intrinsic value, with a median simulated value of $9.92.

Clarity's 1-year price target is $6.35, reflecting expected earnings growth and margin trajectory.

BLACKSTONE MORTGAGE TRUST, INC. is classified under the Specialty Lender / Mortgage REIT sector, and this valuation is based on 10-K · Filed 2026-02-11 filings sourced directly from SEC EDGAR. All models use trailing twelve month (TTM) financials where available, with sector-appropriate growth and discount rate assumptions.