Based on Clarity's multi-model valuation engine, CATERPILLAR INC (CAT) has an estimated fair value of $259.38 per share, compared to its current market price of $680.90. The stock is currently trading 61.9% above Clarity's fair value estimate, resulting in a verdict of SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED.

This valuation blends 6 independent models — including Discounted Cash Flow (DCF), Residual Income, ROIC Fade, and 3 more. The primary weight is given to the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model, with Bayesian triangulation used to reconcile the estimates into a single blended fair value. The 6 models show low agreement with a 49% spread between the highest and lowest estimates.

Monte Carlo simulation across 5,000 scenarios estimates a 1.9% probability that the stock is trading below its intrinsic value, with a median simulated value of $219.60.

Clarity's 1-year price target is $281.10, reflecting expected earnings growth and margin trajectory.

CATERPILLAR INC is classified under the Industrial / Semis sector, and this valuation is based on 10-K · Filed 2026-02-13 filings sourced directly from SEC EDGAR. All models use trailing twelve month (TTM) financials where available, with sector-appropriate growth and discount rate assumptions.