Based on Clarity's multi-model valuation engine, CHIPOTLE MEXICAN GRILL INC (CMG) has an estimated fair value of $30.57 per share, compared to its current market price of $33.37. The stock is currently trading 8.4% above Clarity's fair value estimate, resulting in a verdict of FAIR VALUE.

This valuation blends 4 independent models — including Discounted Cash Flow (DCF), Comparable Companies, Residual Income, and 1 more. The primary weight is given to the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model, with Bayesian triangulation used to reconcile the estimates into a single blended fair value. The 4 models show moderate agreement with a 24% spread between the highest and lowest estimates.

Monte Carlo simulation across 5,000 scenarios estimates a 32.2% probability that the stock is trading below its intrinsic value, with a median simulated value of $25.88.

Clarity's 1-year price target is $32.36, reflecting expected earnings growth and margin trajectory.

CHIPOTLE MEXICAN GRILL INC is classified under the Consumer / Retail sector, and this valuation is based on 10-K · Filed 2026-02-04 filings sourced directly from SEC EDGAR. All models use trailing twelve month financials where available, with sector-appropriate growth and discount rate assumptions.