Based on Clarity's multi-model valuation engine, DOLLAR GENERAL CORP (DG) has an estimated fair value of $121.99 per share, compared to its current market price of $146.31. The stock is currently trading 16.6% above Clarity's fair value estimate, resulting in a verdict of OVERVALUED.

This valuation blends 6 independent models — including Discounted Cash Flow (DCF), Residual Income, ROIC Fade, and 3 more. The primary weight is given to the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model, with Bayesian triangulation used to reconcile the estimates into a single blended fair value. The 6 models show low agreement with a 51% spread between the highest and lowest estimates.

Monte Carlo simulation across 5,000 scenarios estimates a 26.3% probability that the stock is trading below its intrinsic value, with a median simulated value of $103.28.

Clarity's 1-year price target is $104.37, reflecting expected earnings growth and margin trajectory.

DOLLAR GENERAL CORP is classified under the Consumer / Retail sector, and this valuation is based on 10-Q · Filed 2025-12-04 filings sourced directly from SEC EDGAR. All models use trailing twelve month (TTM) financials where available, with sector-appropriate growth and discount rate assumptions.