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DLTRDOLLAR TREE, INC.
Consumer / Retail10-K · Filed 2025-03-26
Clarity Fair Value
$41.40
SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED (-64.2%)
Market Price
$115.79
▼ 64.2% Downside
$37$95$153$211$270202620282030203220342036Market $116
Fair Value PathMarket Price

Model BlendHIGH agreement · 4% spread

DCF$171.22 · 55%
EV/Rev$159.30 · 45%
Trailing Rev Growth
—
Model Implied CAGR
-4.1%
1Y Price Target
$43.20
Market Cap
$23B

DLTR Valuation Summary

Based on Clarity's multi-model valuation engine, DOLLAR TREE, INC. (DLTR) has an estimated fair value of $41.40 per share, compared to its current market price of $115.79. The stock is currently trading 64.2% above Clarity's fair value estimate, resulting in a verdict of SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED.

This valuation blends 2 independent models — including Discounted Cash Flow (DCF), EV/Revenue. The primary weight is given to the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model, with Bayesian triangulation used to reconcile the estimates into a single blended fair value. The 2 models show high agreement with a 4% spread between the highest and lowest estimates.

Monte Carlo simulation across 5,000 scenarios estimates a 0% probability that the stock is trading below its intrinsic value, with a median simulated value of $40.79.

Clarity's 1-year price target is $43.20, reflecting expected earnings growth and margin trajectory.

DOLLAR TREE, INC. is classified under the Consumer / Retail sector, and this valuation is based on 10-K · Filed 2025-03-26 filings sourced directly from SEC EDGAR. All models use trailing twelve month (TTM) financials where available, with sector-appropriate growth and discount rate assumptions.

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Updated Mar 8, 2026, 6:32 PM UTC · Powered by Clarity Valuation Engine · Methodology

DOLLAR TREE, INC. (DLTR) Valuation Summary

Clarity's 6-model valuation engine estimates DOLLAR TREE, INC. (DLTR) at $41.40 per share, compared to the current market price of $115.79. This represents a 64.2% downside from the current price. The verdict is SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED.

This valuation was generated from DOLLAR TREE, INC.'s 10-K · Filed 2025-03-26 filing, classified in the Consumer / Retail sector with high confidence. Model agreement is HIGH with a 4% spread across models.

Models used: DCF (scenario-weighted), Residual Income, Comparable Companies, EV/Revenue, ROIC Fade, and Dividend Discount Model. All data sourced from SEC EDGAR and validated against XBRL structured filings.