← Back to search
HDHOME DEPOT, INC.
Consumer / Retail10-K · Filed 2025-03-21
Clarity Fair Value
$294.94
OVERVALUED (-17.6%)
Market Price
$357.92
17.6% Downside
$265$379$492$605$718202620282030203220342036Market $358
Fair Value PathMarket Price

Model BlendLOW agreement · 50% spread

DCF$432.10 · 31%
Comps$441.80 · 21%
EV/Rev$268.93 · 16%
DDM$81.70 · 16%
ROIC Fade$79.95 · 14%
Residual Income$72.47 · 2%
Beta
Shares
996M
1Y Target
$311.90
EPV Floor
$189.67

HD Valuation Summary

Based on Clarity's multi-model valuation engine, HOME DEPOT, INC. (HD) has an estimated fair value of $294.94 per share, compared to its current market price of $357.92. The stock is currently trading 17.6% above Clarity's fair value estimate, resulting in a verdict of OVERVALUED.

This valuation blends 6 independent models — including Discounted Cash Flow (DCF), Comparable Companies, EV/Revenue, and 3 more. The primary weight is given to the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model, with Bayesian triangulation used to reconcile the estimates into a single blended fair value. The 6 models show low agreement with a 50% spread between the highest and lowest estimates.

Monte Carlo simulation across 5,000 scenarios estimates a 25.7% probability that the stock is trading below its intrinsic value, with a median simulated value of $249.70.

Clarity's 1-year price target is $311.90, reflecting expected earnings growth and margin trajectory.

HOME DEPOT, INC. is classified under the Consumer / Retail sector, and this valuation is based on 10-K · Filed 2025-03-21 filings sourced directly from SEC EDGAR. All models use trailing twelve month (TTM) financials where available, with sector-appropriate growth and discount rate assumptions.

Get the Full Analysis
Monte Carlo confidence intervals, financial statements, scenario modeling, comparable companies, and market context — all in one report.
Run Full Valuation →
Free · 5 valuations/month · No credit card required
Not financial advice. For educational and research purposes only.
Updated Mar 8, 2026, 10:02 AM UTC · Powered by Clarity Valuation Engine · Methodology

HOME DEPOT, INC. (HD) Valuation Summary

Clarity's 6-model valuation engine estimates HOME DEPOT, INC. (HD) at $294.94 per share, compared to the current market price of $357.92. This represents a 17.6% downside from the current price. The verdict is OVERVALUED.

This valuation was generated from HOME DEPOT, INC.'s 10-K · Filed 2025-03-21 filing, classified in the Consumer / Retail sector with high confidence. Model agreement is LOW with a 50% spread across models.

Models used: DCF (scenario-weighted), Residual Income, Comparable Companies, EV/Revenue, ROIC Fade, and Dividend Discount Model. All data sourced from SEC EDGAR and validated against XBRL structured filings.