Based on Clarity's multi-model valuation engine, Marathon Petroleum Corp (MPC) has an estimated fair value of $199.18 per share, compared to its current market price of $221.28. The stock is currently trading 10% above Clarity's fair value estimate, resulting in a verdict of FAIR VALUE.

This valuation blends 6 independent models — including Residual Income, Discounted Cash Flow (DCF), Dividend Discount Model, and 3 more. The primary weight is given to the Residual Income model, with Bayesian triangulation used to reconcile the estimates into a single blended fair value. The 6 models show very_low agreement with a 62% spread between the highest and lowest estimates.

Monte Carlo simulation across 5,000 scenarios estimates a 31% probability that the stock is trading below its intrinsic value, with a median simulated value of $168.63.

Clarity's 1-year price target is $194.74, reflecting expected earnings growth and margin trajectory.

Marathon Petroleum Corp is classified under the E&P (Oil & Gas) sector, and this valuation is based on 10-K · Filed 2026-02-26 filings sourced directly from SEC EDGAR. All models use trailing twelve month (TTM) financials where available, with sector-appropriate growth and discount rate assumptions.