Based on Clarity's multi-model valuation engine, MICROSOFT CORP (MSFT) has an estimated fair value of $341.47 per share, compared to its current market price of $408.96. The stock is currently trading 16.5% above Clarity's fair value estimate, resulting in a verdict of OVERVALUED.

This valuation blends 5 independent models — including Discounted Cash Flow (DCF), Comparable Companies, Residual Income, and 2 more. The primary weight is given to the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model, with Bayesian triangulation used to reconcile the estimates into a single blended fair value. The 5 models show moderate agreement with a 33% spread between the highest and lowest estimates.

Monte Carlo simulation across 5,000 scenarios estimates a 25.9% probability that the stock is trading below its intrinsic value, with a median simulated value of $301.99.

Clarity's 1-year price target is $396.10, reflecting expected earnings growth and margin trajectory.

MICROSOFT CORP is classified under the Mega-Cap / Hyperscaler sector, and this valuation is based on 10-K · Filed 2025-07-30 filings sourced directly from SEC EDGAR. All models use trailing twelve month (TTM) financials where available, with sector-appropriate growth and discount rate assumptions.