CVE Valuation Report | Mar 22, 2026
NIO
◆◆◆
NIO Inc.
10-K
C
$3
$4
$4
$5
$5
$6
$6
$7
.
.
1Y
.
.
MKT
.
.
Fair Value
$3.76
1Y Target
$4.02
MKT. PRICE
$5.43
Model Blend
HIGH agreement · 9% spread
DCF$4.21 · 92%
EV/Rev$2.78 · 8%
Trailing Rev Growth
15.0%
Model Implied Rev CAGR
0.3%
Market Cap
$12B
ClarVal Report
Mar 22, 2026
9:47 PM EDT
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NIO Valuation Summary

Based on Clarity's multi-model valuation engine, NIO Inc. (NIO) has an estimated fair value of $3.76 per share, compared to its current market price of $5.43. The stock is currently trading 30.8% above Clarity's fair value estimate, resulting in a verdict of SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED.

This valuation blends 2 independent models — including Discounted Cash Flow (DCF), EV/Revenue. The primary weight is given to the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model, with Bayesian triangulation used to reconcile the estimates into a single blended fair value. The 2 models show high agreement with a 9% spread between the highest and lowest estimates.

Monte Carlo simulation across 5,000 scenarios estimates a 8% probability that the stock is trading below its intrinsic value, with a median simulated value of $3.60.

Clarity's 1-year price target is $4.02, reflecting expected earnings growth and margin trajectory.

NIO Inc. is classified under the Auto / Equipment OEM sector, and this valuation is based on 10-K filings sourced directly from SEC EDGAR. All models use trailing twelve month financials where available, with sector-appropriate growth and discount rate assumptions.

Not financial advice. For educational and research purposes only.
Updated Mar 22, 2026, 9:47 PM EDT · Powered by Clarity Valuation Engine · Methodology

NIO Inc. (NIO) Valuation Summary

Clarity's 6-model valuation engine estimates NIO Inc. (NIO) at $3.76 per share, compared to the current market price of $5.43. This represents a 30.8% downside from the current price. The verdict is SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED.

This valuation was generated from NIO Inc.'s 10-K filing, classified in the Auto / Equipment OEM sector with high confidence. Model agreement is HIGH with a 9% spread across models.

Models used: DCF (scenario-weighted), Residual Income, Comparable Companies, EV/Revenue, ROIC Fade, and Dividend Discount Model. All data sourced from SEC EDGAR and validated against XBRL structured filings.