Based on Clarity's multi-model valuation engine, Upstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST) has an estimated fair value of $5.46 per share, compared to its current market price of $25.98. The stock is currently trading 79.0% above Clarity's fair value estimate, resulting in a verdict of SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED.

This valuation blends 3 independent models — including Discounted Cash Flow (DCF), Comparable Companies, Residual Income. The primary weight is given to the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model, with Bayesian triangulation used to reconcile the estimates into a single blended fair value. The 3 models show moderate agreement with a 27% spread between the highest and lowest estimates.

Monte Carlo simulation across 5,000 scenarios estimates a 0% probability that the stock is trading below its intrinsic value, with a median simulated value of $5.01.

Clarity's 1-year price target is $6.32, reflecting expected earnings growth and margin trajectory.

Upstart Holdings, Inc. is classified under the Consumer Lender sector, and this valuation is based on 10-K · Filed 2026-02-10 filings sourced directly from SEC EDGAR. All models use trailing twelve month financials where available, with sector-appropriate growth and discount rate assumptions.