Based on Clarity's multi-model valuation engine, Vistra Corp. (VST) has an estimated fair value of $28.66 per share, compared to its current market price of $146.02. The stock is currently trading 80.4% above Clarity's fair value estimate, resulting in a verdict of SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED.

This valuation blends 6 independent models — including Residual Income, Discounted Cash Flow (DCF), Dividend Discount Model, and 3 more. The primary weight is given to the Residual Income model, with Bayesian triangulation used to reconcile the estimates into a single blended fair value. The 6 models show low agreement with a 56% spread between the highest and lowest estimates.

Monte Carlo simulation across 5,000 scenarios estimates a 0.1% probability that the stock is trading below its intrinsic value, with a median simulated value of $24.26.

Clarity's 1-year price target is $29.88, reflecting expected earnings growth and margin trajectory.

Vistra Corp. is classified under the Utility sector, and this valuation is based on 10-K · Filed 2026-02-27 filings sourced directly from SEC EDGAR. All models use trailing twelve month financials where available, with sector-appropriate growth and discount rate assumptions.